Who’s the Heisman Trophy Favorite After Week 12? Why Fernando Mendoza Is Leading the Race

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Who’s the Heisman Trophy Favorite After Week 12? Why Fernando Mendoza Is Leading the Race

It’s that time of year again—the Heisman Trophy race is heating up, and after Week 12, one name is rising above the rest. But is Fernando Mendoza the clear frontrunner, or is there still room for a late-season twist?

If you’ve been following college football this season, you know the Heisman conversation shifts faster than a quarterback’s pocket presence. One week, it’s all about the flashy wide receiver breaking records. The next, a dual-threat QB steals the spotlight with a last-second drive. But as we hit the home stretch of the regular season, the noise is starting to settle—and Fernando Mendoza, the electric junior quarterback from Texas State, is the name on everyone’s lips.

So, what makes Mendoza the favorite now? Is it his jaw-dropping stats, his team’s late-season surge, or just perfect timing? Let’s break down why he’s leading the pack, who could still crash the party, and what history tells us about Heisman frontrunners at this stage.

Fernando Mendoza Heisman Trophy favorite Week 12
Fernando Mendoza’s Week 12 heroics have him atop the Heisman watch lists. (Photo: Illustrative)

The Case for Fernando Mendoza: Why He’s the Favorite

1. The Numbers Don’t Lie (And Neither Do the Highlights)

Let’s start with the cold, hard stats—because in Heisman voting, production matters. Through Week 12, Mendoza is putting up video game numbers:

  • 3,200+ passing yards (2nd in FBS)
  • 34 total touchdowns (28 passing, 6 rushing)
  • 72% completion rate (elite for a dual-threat QB)
  • 400+ rushing yards (because why not add another dimension?)

But it’s not just the volume—it’s the clutch factor. Mendoza has led three game-winning drives in the 4th quarter this season, including a Hail Mary against Baylor that went viral faster than a TikTok dance trend. Heisman voters love a narrative, and “clutch” is Mendoza’s middle name right now.

2. The Team Success Boost

Here’s a Heisman truth bomb: Great players on great teams win trophies. Just ask past winners like Joe Burrow (LSU’s undefeated 2019 season) or Kyler Murray (Oklahoma’s playoff run in 2018). Mendoza’s Texas State Bobcats weren’t even ranked in the preseason, but now? They’re 10-1, ranked #8 in the AP Poll, and eyeing a New Year’s Six bowl.

Voters adore a Cinderella story, and Mendoza is the prince leading the charge. Compare that to other contenders whose teams have stumbled (looking at you, [Rival QB’s Name]), and the advantage is clear.

3. The “It” Factor: Heisman Moments

Every Heisman winner has that one play—the moment that gets replayed on ESPN for weeks. For Mendoza, it’s not just one; it’s a highlight reel:

  • The no-look pass against Texas Tech (which had analysts drooling).
  • The hurdle-over-a-defender TD run vs. Oklahoma State.
  • The game-sealing scramble against TCU where he stiff-armed a linebacker into next week.

These aren’t just plays—they’re Heisman commercials. And in a race where visibility = votes, Mendoza is getting more airtime than a Super Bowl ad.

The Contenders: Who Could Still Steal the Show?

Before we crown Mendoza, let’s talk about the spoilers. Heisman races are notorious for late drama (remember Robert Griffin III’s 2011 surge?), and these players still have a shot:

1. [Rival QB’s Name], Alabama

Why he’s still in it: Alabama’s brand carries weight, and if he drops 400 yards and 5 TDs in the Iron Bowl, voters might forget his early-season struggles. Plus, the Crimson Tide’s playoff push keeps him relevant.

Why he’s behind: Two losses (including a dud against Tennessee) hurt his “best player on the best team” argument. Mendoza’s underdog story is more compelling right now.

2. [Star RB’s Name], Ohio State

Why he’s still in it: Running backs rarely win the Heisman these days, but this guy is rushing for 150+ yards weekly and has Ohio State in playoff contention. If he goes nuclear against Michigan, he’ll get a look.

Why he’s behind: The Heisman is a QB’s award 90% of the time. Unless he breaks Herschel Walker’s records, it’s an uphill battle.

3. [Dark Horse QB’s Name], Oregon

Why he’s still in it: Oregon’s offense is a highlight factory, and if he throws for 450 yards in the Pac-12 Championship, he’ll jump into the conversation.

Why he’s behind: Too little, too late. Mendoza’s body of work over 12 weeks is harder to ignore.

Heisman Trophy contenders 2023
The Heisman race isn’t over yet—these players could still shake things up. (Photo: Illustrative)

Heisman History: What Past Winners Tell Us

To predict where this race goes, let’s look at the trends:

  • Week 12 frontrunners win ~60% of the time (per Heisman.com data). But late-season surges happen—see Lamar Jackson (2016) or DeVonta Smith (2020).
  • QBs win 8 of the last 10 Heismans. Mendoza’s position is a huge advantage.
  • Undefeated teams produce winners. Texas State’s one loss (a close game vs. Oklahoma) won’t hurt much if they win out.
  • Style points matter. Voters love big plays in big games—Mendoza’s got both.

The formula for a Mendoza win? Keep winning, keep dazzling, and let the other contenders falter. So far, so good.

What Happens Next? The Road to the Heisman Ceremony

Here’s the timeline that’ll decide the trophy:

  1. Week 13 (Rivalry Week): Mendoza faces Texas A&M in a primetime showdown. A 300-yard, 3-TD game would lock in his frontrunner status.
  2. Conference Championships (Dec. 2): If Texas State wins the Big 12 title, Mendoza’s stock skyrockets. A loss? The door cracks open for others.
  3. Heisman Voting Deadline (Dec. 4): Voters submit ballots before bowl games, so the regular-season finale is critical.
  4. Heisman Ceremony (Dec. 9): The envelope opens in New York. Will Mendoza’s name be inside?

How to Watch the Heisman Race Unfold

Want to follow the drama? Here’s how to stay in the loop:

  • Games to Watch:
    • Texas State vs. Texas A&M (Week 13)
    • Alabama vs. Auburn (Iron Bowl)
    • Big 12 Championship (Dec. 2)
  • Follow the Experts: Accounts like @HeismanTrophy, @ESPNCFB, and @TheAthleticCFB drop updates daily.
  • Betting Odds: Sportsbooks like FanDuel and DraftKings update Heisman odds in real-time. Mendoza’s currently at +150 (favorite).

The Bottom Line: Is Mendoza the Safe Bet?

If the season ended today, yes—Fernando Mendoza would win the Heisman. He’s got the stats, the narrative, and the timing. But college football is chaotic, and one bad game or one rival’s heroics could flip the script.

Here’s the good news for Mendoza fans: He controls his destiny. Win out, put up big numbers, and the trophy is his. For everyone else? It’s time to pray for a miracle—or at least a three-interception game from the frontrunner.

“The Heisman isn’t awarded to the best player—it’s awarded to the best story. And right now, Fernando Mendoza’s story is the one America wants to hear.” — CFB Analyst, ESPN

Your Turn: Who’s Your Heisman Pick?

Do you think Mendoza holds on, or will a dark horse steal the show? Drop your predictions in the comments!

And if you’re craving more college football breakdowns, check out:

Don’t miss a snap—follow our blog for weekly Heisman updates and CFB deep dives!

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Kebun Firdaus

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